Sitting at the local sports bar, spinning my head to catch all the NFL action on the multiple screens, I overheard two patrons engage in point spread patter. But rather than focusing their numbers talk on the upcoming Monday Night game, these two punters were already thinking about next Sunday.

“I loved the ways the Saints came back,” said one as he pointed to the television showing New Orleans late game heroics against the 49’ers. “I bet they’ll be at least 7 over the Falcons next week. They have to be at least a touchdown favorite the way they’re playing.”

“No way,” said his buddy. “You don’t get it. The linesmaker doesn’t like to give a team with an okay defense like Atlanta a touchdown head start,” he said.  “I’ll bet you the line is less than 6.5 points.”

While the excitable guy was way off- the number opened at 4 and hasn’t budged- the real story is that with each passing day, like Chang and Eng, gambling and the NFL are more than ever joined at the hip. No longer do just the closing lines intrigue gamblers, sports talking heads and even casual fans who play nothing more than office pools, but we now see guys in bars actually debating on what they think the linesmaker’s opening numbers will be. You know what? If you gamble, that’s not a bad starting point.

Circle 8-12 college games involving teams that you feel comfortable with- then look at the entire NFL card. Then sometime on Sunday night or early Monday, before you peek at the opening numbers, pretend you’re the linesmaker.

Promising vigilance to the teachings of John Locke, look at each game as a tabula rasa making sure not to allow your opinion on which team you think will win and by how much dictate your line. Remember, you’re making a line and not a prediction- you’re trying to make a gambling number for the world.

If you are within two points on 11 of the 14 or so NFL games and fall inside four points on say 9 of 12 of the NCAA games, then you’ve chosen the right hobby. If your numbers vary by more than these parameters, you better do some more reading on how to gamble and how the lines is made. In short, if you’re way off the real line, make a commitment to redefine your outlook on the gridiron gambling game.

For starters, make a set of power ratings numbers. Publications like the venerable Gold Sheet and Winning Points can help or you can look at the Sagarin Ratings. Now look at those numbers, and add or subtract based on your knowledge and feelings.

Remember, this isn’t an exact science. If it were, we’d all have the formula for success. But if you want to be successful at this game, you have to begin to think like the oddsmaker and by making your line before you see the numbers is a good starting point.

Good Luck Everyone

Nick Rizzo