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From The Lines Desk…
Football against the numbers … November 14th, 2002

NFL: (overall NFL regular season systems at 62% "side" winners)

90% or Better (these went 7-1 ATS last yr (2001) in the regular season)
(pre-season 3-1-1 in 2002)
(regular season 0-2)


80% OR BETTER
(pre-season 5-1-1)
(regular season 13-9-2)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7 points or less (GREEN BAY) - after 3 straight wins by 14 or more points.
(8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play On - Road underdogs of 7 points or less (NEW ORLEANS) - off 6 or more consecutive overs. (8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play Against - Road underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (ARIZONA) - after 3 straight games allowing 63% or higher completion pct (20 att). (10-2 ATS) (83.3%, +7.8 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (ARIZONA) - after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. (8-1 ATS) (88.9%, +6.9 units. Rating = 1*)
 

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75% - 79%  
(pre-season 8-3)
(regular season 16-7-1)

Play On - Home favorites of 7 points or less (DENVER) - after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. (10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 0*)

Play On - Home underdogs (HOUSTON) - after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.
(13-4 ATS) (76.5%, +8.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 7 points or less (TENNESSEE) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. (11-3 ATS) (78.6%, +7.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs (SAN DIEGO) - after allowing 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.
(10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites (GREEN BAY) - after 3 straight wins by 14 or more points. (12-4 ATS) (75%, +7.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after allowing 450 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games.
(10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Road underdogs of 7 points or less (NEW ORLEANS) - off 5 or more consecutive overs.
(12-4 ATS) (75%, +7.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Road favorites of 7 points or less (CLEVELAND) - off a cover where the team lost as an underdog.
(18-6 ATS) (75%, +11.4 units. Rating = 2*)
 

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TOTALS  
(pre-season 7-9)
(regular season 17-15)

Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. (9-2 ATS) (81.8%, +6.8 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (GREEN BAY) - after 2 or more consecutive wins. (15-4 ATS) (78.9%, +10.6 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (GREEN BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive wins. (13-3 ATS) (81.2%, +9.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Over - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ATLANTA) - after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. (10-2 ATS) (83.3%, +7.8 units. Rating = 1*)

=================================================

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COLLEGE (overall College systems at ***58% winners)

90% OR BETTER
(5-6)

80% OR BETTER
(58-37)

Play On - Home favorites of 14.5 to 21 points (C FLORIDA) - after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts.
(17-4 ATS) (81%, +12.6 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7 points or less (MARYLAND) - after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. (14-3 ATS) (82.4%, +10.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. (17-4 ATS) (81%, +12.6 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - after allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (13-3 ATS) (81.2%, +9.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. (15-3 ATS) (83.3%, +11.7 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Home underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points (INDIANA) - after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. (8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (IOWA) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. (17-4 ATS) (81%, +12.6 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (IOWA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. (15-3 ATS) (83.3%, +11.7 units. Rating = 3*)

Play On - Home favorites of 14.5 to 21 points (KENTUCKY) - after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. (16-3 ATS) (84.2%, +12.7 units. Rating = 3*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 35.5 or more points (BAYLOR) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. (8-1 ATS) (88.9%, +6.9 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 35.5 or more points (BAYLOR) - poor rushing team - averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry. (8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 35.5 or more points (BAYLOR) - after playing 3 straight games as an underdog.
(8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 35.5 or more points (BAYLOR) - after playing 4 straight games as an underdog.
(8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 35.5 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - with a good first half defense - 8 or less points per game. (8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 35.5 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - with a good rushing D - allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry. (10-2 ATS) (83.3%, +7.8 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 7 points or less (TEXAS TECH) - after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. (12-3 ATS) (80%, +8.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (SAN JOSE ST) - with a poor rushing D - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry. (21-5 ATS) (80.8%, +15.5 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (COLORADO ST) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games. (15-3 ATS) (83.3%, +11.7 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Home favorites of 7 points or less (BYU) - after 2 straight games where they lost 25 or less yards in penalties. (10-2 ATS) (83.3%, +7.8 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 or more points (FLORIDA ST) - after a game with a 35% or worse completion pct. (20 att min). (9-2 ATS) (81.8%, +6.8 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7 points or less (ALABAMA) - after 2 consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. (14-3 ATS) (82.4%, +10.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (NEBRASKA) - after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (8-2 ATS) (80%, +5.8 units. Rating = 0*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7 points or less (SMU) - pathetic team - outscored by opponents by 17 or more points/game. (10-2 ATS) (83.3%, +7.8 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Road underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points (LA MONROE) - after playing 2 straight games as a road underdog.
(17-4 ATS) (81%, +12.6 units. Rating = 3*)
 

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75% OR BETTER
(60-48 ats)

Play On - Home favorites of 7 points or less (S FLORIDA) - after allowing 2 or less rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (19-6 ATS) (76%, +12.4 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites (SMU) - pathetic team - outscored by opponents by 17 or more points/game.
(15-5 ATS) (75%, +9.5 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (KANSAS ST) - after allowing 17 points or less in 5 straight games.
(10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (WYOMING) - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games. (16-5 ATS) (76.2%, +10.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (TULSA) - after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. (26-8 ATS) (76.5%, +17.2 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (SAN JOSE ST) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play. (13-4 ATS) (76.5%, +8.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (TULSA) - cold team, after having lost 8 or more out of their last 10 games. (16-5 ATS) (76.2%, +10.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 7 points or less (TEXAS TECH) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points.
(12-3 ATS) (80%, +8.7 units. Rating = 2*)

Play On - Home underdogs (TEXAS TECH) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points.
(17-5 ATS) (77.3%, +11.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Play On - Home underdogs (TEXAS TECH) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.
(10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 35.5 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - with a good defense - allowing 315 or less total yards/game. (10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 35.5 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season. (10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 35.5 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - with an excellent defense - allowing 285 or less total yards/game. (8-1 ATS) (88.9%, +6.9 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 35.5 or more points (OKLAHOMA) - when playing with 6 or less days rest.
(12-4 ATS) (75%, +7.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Road underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points (MISSOURI) - mistake-free team - committing 1 or less turnovers/game. (25-8 ATS) (75.8%, +16.2 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7 points or less (TOLEDO) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games. (11-3 ATS) (78.6%, +7.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play On - Home underdogs of 21.5 to 28 points (E MICHIGAN) - after playing 5 straight games as an underdog.
(12-4 ATS) (75%, +7.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (IOWA) - after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(24-8 ATS) (75%, +15.2 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (IOWA) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(13-4 ATS) (76.5%, +8.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (IOWA) - after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games.
(18-5 ATS) (78.3%, +12.5 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (IOWA) - after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games.
(10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games.
(18-5 ATS) (78.3%, +12.5 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - after allowing 14 points or less in 4 straight games.
(10-3 ATS) (76.9%, +6.7 units. Rating = 1*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games.
(16-5 ATS) (76.2%, +10.5 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(24-8 ATS) (75%, +15.2 units. Rating = 2*)

Play Against - Road favorites of 7.5 to 14 points (OHIO ST) - after 8 or more consecutive straight up wins.
(13-4 ATS) (76.5%, +8.6 units. Rating = 1*)

Good Luck Everyone

Nick Rizzo

 

 

 
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