Click Here to win on MLB…May 7, 2003

Baseball is known as America’s past time.  Baseball is extremely popular amongst fantasy players, but baseball doesn’t enjoy the gambling popularity that say, football does.  Those that do bet on baseball find that it can be very profitable if done properly.  One thing that both fantasy gamers and gamblers appreciate about baseball is its predictability. It’s a wonder, then, that more fantasy league players don't bet baseball.

Teams and players generally perform according to historical averages.  Yet even better is that baseball is a game of streaks.  This point is very important to gamblers.  Hitters go on a tear, pitchers can't be touched for a month at a time, and teams rattle off eight or nine wins in a row or even go Oh-for-the-Coast if the Western Division teams are playing well.

How can the sports bettor interpret this matrix of percentages to her or his advantage?

·       Pick a handful of teams which you expect to compete for a division championship or even a league pennant, these teams we will call the WINNERS.

·       Next pick a handful of teams which you expect to muddle along at best, be on the bottom looking up so to speak.  These teams we will call the LOSERS.

·       The WINNERS you should expect to tally 85-95 victories, the loser to drop 95-105 games.

·       Look for matchups of WINNERS against the LOSERS, then bet the series, or, make the same bet for two or three days in a row while the LOSER visits the WINNER's home ballpark.

·       Bet on strong pitching. For instance the Yankees have one of the past pitching staffs in baseball and right now are $729 on the money line.

·       Every team manager tries to arrange his pitching rotation to start his best pitcher in the first game of as many series (especially at home in front of supportive fans in a familiar stadium) as possible (generally against the other team's best pitcher).

·       By the second and particularly third game of a series, the WINNER should still be sending a quality pitcher to the mound to start the game while the LOSER hopes for the best with what it has in the bottom half of its rotation.

Of course the oddsmakers know all these tricks, too, and will build the WINNER/home-team advantage into the odds on the game; still, is it not better to cash a short-odds bet than to lose on a long-shot?

Good Luck and bet smart.

Nick Rizzo

Questions and comments can be directed to NickR@LasVegasSportsLine.com