March Mayhem…March 26, 2003

Once again the NCAA tournament has proven to be one of sports best events, second to only the Superbowl.  The top teams have played well with Kentucky owning every team they play and Arizona seeing a scare but winning when they had to.

I normally don’t make predictions in this column but NCAA tournament time is always something special; so looking ahead towards the weekend I expect to see the Sooners and the Wildcats advancing to the Elite 8, but I am not so sure though I am willing to lay the points.  Let’s take a look at 3 games that I think do have value heading into the weekend.

Syracuse (-5) vs. Auburn - Were it not for Butler, Auburn would be the feel good story of this tourney. Syracuse was the beneficiary of a priceless gift from the NCAA committee, being slated to play rounds 3-4 in their backyard of Albany, NY. The house will be dominated by Orangemen which is just the intangible Boheim's crew needs to overcome the poor free throw shooting and lack of experience often considered the two most vital ingredients to move ahead in the tournament. Lay the points and take the Orangemen in the home game.

Notre Dame (+8) vs. Arizona - Since the end of the regular season Arizona has lost to a underachieving UCLA squad, won a meaningless 1-16 game, and barely squeaked by an overachieving Gonzaga squad. Was this one of those games that you point to as the wake up game or is this a view of things to come. Notre Dame on the other hand, toyed with an Illinois team that many had advancing the late rounds.  Arizona is the deeper, more talented, more tournament tested team in this game, but I don't expect it to be a blowout. I am not saying I have Notre Dame going to the Elite 8, but I am saying take the points. This game will be closer than the 8 points being offered.

Texas (-2.5) vs. UConn- UConn has been playing some good ball lately and Okafor has established himself as the one of, if not the best big man in the country.  Texas on the other hand is big game tested and they will prove worthy of the number 1 seed in the South. This is virtually a home game for Texas, being played in San Antonio. Lay the points and look for the Longhorns to advance.

In general, there haven’t been any of the big upsets we’ve seen in the past tournaments.  I see the better teams advancing and for Auburn and, more so, Butler, the sweet 16 is where the fun ends. The real deals will be the ones standing come Sunday.

Here is how I see the tourney playing out:

West: Arizona vs. Kansas.  Kansas advances.

Midwest: Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh.  Kentucky advances

East: Oklahoma vs. Syracuse.  Syracuse advances

South: Texas vs. Michigan State.  Texas advances

Texas over Syracuse.  Kentucky over Kansas.

And your NCAA National Champion is Kentucky.

Good Luck and bet smart.

Nick Rizzo

Questions and comments can be directed to NickR@LasVegasSportsLine.com