Dressed to the Nines…March 17, 2003

What is it about the number 9 that makes Companies (SportsBooks) believe it is such a mind altering number?  Why is it when you walk into your local Lexus Dealer and the sticker price is $39,999., but not $40,000?   Or when you are food shopping at your local super market and you pick up a gallon of milk and the price is $3.99, but not $4.00.   Is it our love for Abraham Lincoln and the copper penny?  I think not.   Why does this happen?  Well, we all know that the reason is similar to that of a David Copperfield, ILLUSION!  The Companies (SportsBooks)  in question thinks the consumers (gamblers) are dumb enough to think they are getting a deal.  Let me give you a few examples.

"Hey, Dave, what did you pay for your Lexus?  I paid $39 grand."  What happened to the $999???

"Honey, how much did the milk cost?  3 bucks." Where's the .99 cents?

You get the idea.... Now let's take this same logic to the art of gambling.  If I am Joe Smoe from Idaho venturing up to a Vegas sports book and I see Illinois - 9 vs Western Kentucky.  I know I saw Illini win their Big 10 championship and now they are playing some small school...Oh yeah they can beat Western Kentucky by at least 10..If Vegas puts 8 or 10 then the appeal may not be there.  Same goes for Florida Gators -19 over Sam Houston State.  The prior results that back up my claim are as follows:

2002
Georgia -9' defeated Murray State 85-68 (fav)
Indiana -9' defeated UNC Wilmington 76-67 (dog)

2001
Mississippi -9' defeated Iona 72-70 (dog)
Florida -9' defeated W. Kentucky 69-56 (fav)
Duke -19' defeated Missouri 94-81 (dog)

2000
Iowa St -19' defeated Cent. Connect. 88-78 (dog)
Florida -9 defeated Butler 69-68 (OT) (dog)

1999
Temple -9 defeated Kent St 61-54 (dog)
Michigan St -29 defeated Mt. St. Mary 76-53 (dog)
Michigan St -9 defeated Mississippi 74-66 (dog)
Michigan St -9 defeated Oklahoma 54-46 (dog)

1998
Purdue -9 defeated Detroit 80-65 (fav)
Xavier -9' lost to Washington 69-68 (dog SU)
Arizona -9 defeated Maryland 87-79 (dog)
North Carolina -9' defeated UConn 75-64 (fav)
Kentucky -9 defeated Stanford 85-84 (dog)

16 games, covered by the dog 12 times (75%), however only 1 straight up winner.

Well again, I think Vegas puts out "appealing lines" that will entice Joe Public to part with his Benjamins and if you are sharp you can find value in certain numbers/games.  Or maybe it is just a coincidence.

Anyway, for whatever reason, and no matter what it's called, you can't deny that it makes sense to play WKU+9 and SAM HOUSTON STATE +19 based on the examples and stats listed above. Let's not fall into the trap this year and be aware of the number 9!

Good Luck and bet smart.

Nick Rizzo

Questions and comments can be directed to NickR@LasVegasSportsLine.com