What does your Daddy do?… February 5, 2003

Think for a moment that I was, god forbid, ever allowed to procreate.  The psychological damage that I would inflict upon a poor unsuspecting child would be criminal.  Not that I would knowingly be a bad father, I just don’t live my life as a normal parent would or could.  I cannot even fathom what the poor youngster would say on parent’s day.

“My Dad is….um…..he does…ah….He’s dead.”

Kids give adults an edge.  The adults that would know how to use this edge are the ones that would exploit this benefit.  For instance, if I were to take my little angel to a pool hall, who would suspect that Daddy is going to ‘shark you’ out of next weeks rent money?  Or even better, who would suspect that my sweet little eleven year old daughter is going to beat you in pool?  Think of the return!

Sound horrific to you?  Not the fact that I may actually one day breed, but that fact that I would use that to exploit an advantage.  This is not unlike what we do when we bet on a game.  We look to exploit an advantage that we think the handicapper missed.

And what are some of the things that a handicapper may miss?  Or better yet what are some of the things that you can use to exploit what a handicapper might miss?

What is your line?

A common misconception is that the lines are made as to who will win and by how much.  This could not be any further from the truth.  The line is made to ensure that there will be an equal amount of money bet on each side.  To use this to your advantage, when looking at the games take into consideration the trends, advantage of home or away, injuries, and power rankings; now create a line on your own.  If the line is exactly the same or very similar then stay away, the line is where it should be; if it’s not then make your bet accordingly.

Don’t be afraid to go against popular teams

Popular teams can over-inflate lines.  Examples of this can be seen with the Lakers, the 49’ers, and University of Miami Football.  All good teams have good records but some have losing records when placed against the spread.  Betting is about the spread, not about the win-loss record.  Some teams can offer exceptional value and not be a part of the ‘in’ crowd.  For instance this years Golden State Warriors are playing sub .500 ball at 21-27, however against the spread they are much more user friendly at 28-18-2.

Avoid the home team

Inside we are all sports fans.  We have all grown up watching our favorite teams and have cried when they have broken our hearts (Bill Buckner, I forgive you).  Because we all know our favorite teams the best we tend to over rate talent at times.  When betting we are no longer just a sports fan, we become a viewer with a vested interest in the outcome.  Bet with your head, not with your heart.

Avoid the sure thing

A sure thing is usually anything but.  There is a story about a guy who worked at the track.  Every time someone would come in with a sure thing, he would bet the opposite.  Supposedly our friend cashed in his winning ticket 70% of the time.

Trust yourself

We all win and we all lose.  Trust the system you have in place and give it a chance to work.  Don’t get carried away and keep within your system.  If you lose a game don’t play catch-up on a later game.  Only bet the games that are of value to you.  Often times that games you bet are just as significant as the games that you don’t bet.

Good Luck

Nick Rizzo

Questions and comments can be directed to NickR@LasVegasSportsLine.com