129^th Kentucky Derby Part 3…April 30, 2003

I usually reserve Derby picks for Derby Day.  If I were to have written this article yesterday I would have had Empire Maker as the clear favorite.  However, now that Empire Maker has a bruised foot that should make it interesting for the rest of the field.  Here is a look at some horses that can be your ticket to the pay window.

Although Empire Maker has the 'Unbridled' bloodlines, I like to look at the Santa Anita Derby winner and that would be Buddy Gil. However, judging by the times and distance, it appears that Arkansas Derby winner Sir Cherokee may get the money here.  Admittedly he is a bit of a long shot, but he times out as well as any horse running and likes this distance.  He could pay handsomely.

Empire Maker won the Florida Derby and the Wood Memorial, despite the training incident he still has to be the favorite.  He appears to be a superior horse and if the field is whittled down, he has a better chance to win.  He is still improving and might peak on Derby day.  His sire is Unbridled and his trainer is Bobby Frankel. Frankel also has Peace Rules in this race.  Peace Rules won the Louisiana Derby and followed that by winning the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.  He could set the pace at Churchill Downs.  Every other horse will have to catch him or he will indeed rule the day.  He might outrun his stablemate, but chances are he will run out of gas, and Empire Maker's power will overtake him.

Buddy Gil won the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby.  It will be important to follow his workouts before the race to see if he likes this track.  Jockey Gary Stevens gets the mount on this 3-year-old and he knows how to win big races.  It will be difficult for him to win again in the Kentucky Derby with a large field. Buddy Gil has good speed figures, but can he get the distance through traffic?  I don't think that he has the bloodlines for this distance.

Ten Most Wanted is a speedy horse that won the Illinois Derby.  His sire was Deputy Commander.  He has been erratic though.  Another son of Deputy Commander is Brancusi and this horse merits a strong look because he finishes in the money. He was 2nd in the Blue Grass Stakes to Peace Rules.  He has finished first, second and third against major competition since going on Lasix.

 The Kentucky Derby has had too many entries in recent years.  The field has been so crowded that it has made the race even more unpredictable.  It seems the best horse usually emerges in the Preakness and Belmont.  There have been so many horses running in the Derby lately that they had auxiliary gates added.  It has caused a lot of bumping, closed lanes and erratic rides for many a good horse and jockey.  For now, I would recommend a wager, small plate only, on Sir Cherokee across the board.  That way you can watch the race and wait for the creme to rise for the Preakness and Belmont when the dust settles.  If the field is too large, then the horse that wins could easily be a counterfeit.  It has yet to be decided how many will be in the field, but some good bourbon and a decent box seat will suffice if there are too many entries. 

Empire Maker, Brancusi and Ten Most Wanted have excellent bloodlines.  However, the distance in the Derby always is a stumbling block for many horses who have never run this far.  I doubt that Ten Most Wanted will be near the finish line, but Brancusi might be close.  I look for Peace Rules to fall back late.  He has hardly been lightly raced and may even give out before the stretch run.  So that leaves Sir Cherokee, Brancusi and Empire Maker in the stretch.  Empire Maker could be such a big favorite at post time that he won't pay much if he wins.  I think he will come in second.  If you like Empire Maker then just bet him to Win and Place.  Putting down the show money for him will be a wasted bet.  A good way to play is to bet the horse you like best to Win and to Place.  Then, bet your second favorite horse to Place.  Although Sir Cherokee will not have a name jockey, the horse favors this distance.  It won't be a surprise to me, but the unheralded Sir Cherokee could shock the nation! 

Lines are courtesy of SportingBetUSA. 

Good Luck and bet smart.

Nick Rizzo

Questions and comments can be directed to NickR@LasVegasSportsLine.com