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From The Lines Desk…

129th Kentucky Derby Part 2April 16, 2003

With less than two weeks to the race, it is crunch time at Churchill Downs for horses training for the Kentucky Derby.   Last spring, Proud Citizen stood out on a daily basis in the mornings leading up to the Derby, then went out to finish second behind War Emblem at odds of 23-1. Harlan's Holiday, on the other hand, turned in a disappointing work five days before the race, and finished a non-threatening sixth as the Derby favorite.  Here is how the field appears to be shaping up.

Horse
Sire

Odds

Last Race
Result
Beyer

Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker’s comments**

Empire Maker
   By Unbridled

9-5

Wood Memorial, 4/12
1st by 1/2, 111
JP: Loved the way he won the Wood; a masterpiece by Frankel, Bailey.
MW: Deserves to be strong favorite; taking a low price is another matter.
Ten Most Wanted
   By Deputy Commander

8-1

Illinois Derby, 4/5
1st by 4, 110
JP: One of the few in this race who appears to real want 1¼ mil
MW: Reaching peak form at the right time; an appealing alternative to the chalk.
Peace Rules
   By Jules

6-1

Blue Grass, 4/12
1st by 3½, 104
JP: Took advantage of a pronounced inside speed bias at Keeneland.
MW: He also came home incredibly slow; I prefer horses from stronger run races.
Atswahtimtalknabout
   By A. P. Indy

7-1

Santa Anita Derby, 4/5
4th by a 3½, 98
JP: After working a mile on Mnday, one thing is for sure - he'll be fit.
MW: His form, on the other hand, seems to be going the wrong way; I'll pass.
Buddy Girl
   By Eastern Echo

8-1

Santa Anita Derby, 4/5
1st by a head, 104
JP: If anyone in this race makes a mistake, he will capitalize.  He’s tenacious.
MW: Nevertheless, he did not come home strongly in the Santa Anita Derby.
Kafwain
   By Cherokee Run

10-1

Santa Anita Derby, 4/5
3rd by 2½, 100
JP: Thought he was outworked Wednesday by Indian Express, over the top?
MW: Even if he holds his form, the distance is still a stumbling block.
Brancusi
   By Deputy Commander

12-1

Blue Grass, 4/12
2nd by 3½, 98
JP: Continues to make big strides with each start; can get a piece at Churchill.
MW: He gave ground through a very slow final furling in Blue Grass, no thanks.
Funny Cide
   By Distorted Humor

15-1

Wood Memorial, 4/12
2nd by 1/2 , 110
JP: A terrific overachiever; he ran his heart out against Empire Maker in Wood.
MW: Especially considering he was denied an easy early lead; a bit intriguing.
Indian Express
   by Indian Charlie

20-1

Santa Anita Derby, 4/5
2nd by a head, 104
JP: He has the most legitimate early speed of anyone.  A threat on the front end.
MW: We can’t have another phony-paced Derby like last year, can we?
Scrimshaws
   By Gulch

12-1

Lexington, 4/19
1st, by 3, 99
JP: Horse and trainer both breathed much easier after victory in the Lexington.
MW: Despite his Lazarus impression, I still think he is seriously overmatched.
Sir Cherokee
   By Cherokee Run

25-1

Arkansas Derby, 4/12
1st by 1¾, 106
JP: Brutally hot paced flattered his late run, the Derby distance suits him.
MW: At least he is in form, and he can finish, which makes him one to consider.
Eye of the Tiger
   By American Chance

50-1

Lexington, 4/19
2nd by 3, 94
JP: Lexington was his first try at a distance; the Derby suits him.
MW: A Distance issue aside, this colt is still looking for his first stakes victory.
Offlee Wild
   By Wild Again

12-1

Blue Grass, 4/12
3rd by 8, 91
JP: Mixed impressions of him – he needed race, but had benefit of golden rail.
MW: I’m surprised they are going on with him after the patience they’ve shown.
Outta Here
   By Dehere

50-1

UAE Derby, 3/29
4th by 5½, 107 (tf)
JP: He seems a cut below the best. Bout owner-trainer wants to roll the dice.
MW: His claim to fame remains a win in a stakes of dubious merit at Delta Downs.
Senor Swinger
   By El Prado

80-1

Wood Memorial, 4/12
5th by 9¼, 96
JP: Going to have to run better than that to earn back $1 million purchase price.
MW: He actually improved in the Wood, not the worst bomber to take a flyer on.
Lone Star Sky
   By Conquistador Cielo

80-1

Illinois Derby, 4/5
4th by 12¾, 89
JP: Trainer says he’s ‘possible’ for Derby; hoping for defections of some big boys.
MW: That would have to be a very long list of defections to give him any shot.
Supah Blitz
   By Mecke

100-1

Aventura, 4/5
2nd by 3¼, 95
JP: What’s the point of saying, “I had a horse in the Derby?  He finished 15th.
MW: Fifteenth? Wow That’s a little higher than the finish I had him pegged for.
Ten Cents a Shine
   By Devil His Due

80-1

Blue Grass, 4/12
8th by 43¼, 34
JP: Under consideration because of past work, but recent races are dreadful.
MW: If he starts, he may well have the worst last-race Beyer in Derby history.
Evolving Tactics
   By Maciavellian

100-1

Newmarket Maiden, 4/21
1st by 2, 90 (tf)
JP: It’s apparent that foolishness regarding this race can cross the Atlantic.
MW: He would be beaten by about as far as he would have to travel for this.
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker are featured columnist for the Daily Racing Form

All odds are provided by SportingBetUSA

Good Luck and bet smart.

Nick Rizzo

Questions and comments can be directed to NickR@LasVegasSportsLine.com

 

 

 
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