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NBA Back to Back…April
2, 2003
Most of us
have heard the statement that NBA teams playing in the second game of a
back to back set have a tougher time winning. As I showed in the article
from
March 10th, this really isn't true. The fact is that NBA teams don't
play significantly worse in the second game of back to back games. Now the
question of how to the do Against the Spread in these games? Does the
prevailing thought that they do play worse during these games affect the
line of those games?
Going back to
the beginning of the 2002 season I collected data of back to back NBA
games against the spread, the following table shows the results.
|
Back to
Back Set |
Win % ATS |
|
home/road |
53.4 |
|
road/home |
48.4 |
|
road/road |
46.0 |
|
home/home |
50.0 |
|
second
game overall |
49.0 |
At first
glance it looks like the wise guys are almost dead on. From an overall
standpoint it doesn't look like there is any advantage to playing the home
or road team in the second game of a back to back set. However, when we
break it down into the individual sets, we see some slight trends, and
both occur when the second game is played on the road.
When a team
played a home/road back to back set, they covered the spread in 53.4% of
the second games. This percentage really isn't significant and probably
isn't big enough to use on a regular basis, but if it is a game that you
find value in, it is just another factor to help in your decision to make
a better informed bet.
The second
case is when a team played a road/road back to back set, which is also the
most common type of back to back set. In the second game of these sets,
the road team covered only 46% of the time. Again, this isn't a trend I
would solely base my decision to place a bet, but it is something we
should take note of before placing the bet.
Now armed with
this information we are now able to make better decisions. Just because a
team is playing back to back should not be a reason to place a wager.
Instead it should be just another factor as to how we find value in the
games we wager. Just be sure to check to see if the road team is playing
in the second game of a back to back and maybe make a slight adjustment
based on that. And for more added value take advantage of the 5% juice
Fridays at
SportingBetUSA.
Good
Luck and bet smart.
Nick Rizzo
Questions and comments can be directed to
NickR@LasVegasSportsLine.com |
