The Plymouth gin Martini came bracingly dry, and Jay, a longtime bartender at The Stockyard delivered it with a side of reality. "Tough year."

I muttered "Yeah," and continued to look at the menu mentally contemplating between the prime rib and Cowboy rib-eye. Chuckling to myself, Jay's terse two words and the Stockyard menu were both all about making choices, but unlike cuts of steak, last weekend it was chunks of money at stake.

Unable to contain himself, Jay saddled back to the point of the bar, and said, "Four games last weekend and almost $2,000 at risk. It's not like you to try and get even in one week." But before I could muster a half-hearted apologetic mutter, he pointedly asked, "Don't tell me you'll be sending in dime ($1,000) bets on the sides and totals this weekend?"

Jay was right, I committed the greatest sin in gambling and that was to chase my losses. And like anyone who's ever been there, rarely does the chase come with a happy ending. The Skins failed to cover the 9 ½ (although by kickoff, they were getting 10-points) in Seattle and both the Colts and Bears lost outright as favorites. The lone winner came courtesy of five turnovers when Denver sent Local 22 home for the National Football Lottery holidays. Dropping an income tax-like $1,040, the penultimate weekend of the arduous campaign finds the steaming stalwarts stuck $3,010 resulting from a 13-21-1 mark by the numbers. There will be no mai tais in Maui for anyone this year.

Unlike mathematics where axioms are impermeable, sports gambling comes with a very flexible set of systems and principles. Among the many are take points with the home 'dog; never tease a 3-point favorite; play totals set at 34 and 34 ½ under and never bet a team that's playing its third straight road game.

And let me add two corollaries to the last - never bet teams playing their third straight road games in which the line has moved towards them if they're playing a team that's had a week of rest during this stretch.

Add the three up and this week, the traveling circus of a year brings us to Seattle and Denver, a pair of teams playing at home with a week of rest sandwiched in against (hopefully) road-weary opponents that were getting 6 and 4 ½ -points respectively when the numbers came out last Sunday night.

The Panthers and Steelers are indeed the Mad Max's of the NFL, each sporting 8-2 road marks. But on the other side, the Seahawks have won every game in Seattle, a feat matched by the Broncos at Invesco. So what we have are two visitors that have shown the ability to win on foreign turf as well as winning two straight road games in the post season matched up against home teams that have never tasted defeat in their stadiums this year.

Because they won convincingly as 'dogs last weekend, money poured in early dropping the number on both the Steelers and Panthers, despite the latter losing their number one running back. As for the Steelers, they completely dominated the Colts while the Broncos hardly looked like world beaters in defeating The Sons of Krafty Bob.

But wait, it's a big game and Bill Cowher is calling the shots. I also like teams that won a game in which they were outplayed to come back and play a good game the following week. We have that in Denver, a team that wins at home, can get after the quarterback and enters ahead in the battle of wits. The Broncos laying 3-points will be a $440 risk.

In Seattle, the battle of wits goes to the visitor, but the battle of running games rests with the home team. Seattle has won every game in its rainy home and Carolina enters off a slew of road games. I also can't bet into the line move and see the Seahawks as good value at only -3 ½ points; like the home side Broncos, Seattle will be a $440 play.

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