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BY THE NUMBERS - by I.M. Bettor
Playoffs---Week Two, Friday, January 13, 2006
I.M. Bettor
I.M. Bettor

If last weekend, when only four of the six entries were indeed "wild cards," can be dubbed "Wild Card Weekend," I say let's christen this "Rematch Weekend" because all four matchups fit that moniker. And somewhat interestingly, for those who follow such things, unlike the typical NFL schedule where round two switches venues, three sites remain the same.

In October, a depleted den of Hometown Heroes made its way to Denver losing by eight after spotting the home team Broncos a huge three-touchdown plus head start. In the original tilt in Naptown, the Steelers entered a bit weary, welcoming back a rusty Ben Roethlisberger; but before you could say "Bill Cowher's spittle looks particularly wet tonight," the then white-hot Colts scored on the game's opening play and never looked back, easily covering the 8 ½ -point spread. Move to the Middle West and in mid-season, the Panthers went into Chicago as 3-point road favorites and got whipped. As for the Skins-Seahawks, they met very early in Washington, with the Skins eking out a 20-17 victory after Seattle clawed back from a deficit.

Looking at the numbers, the linesmaker chose not to mess with success in the first two. Despite revitalization on the parts of both visitors, Denver, as in the first go-round is still a 3-point favorite over Local 22 while a seemingly beefed up Steelers squad, like the first time, enters as huge 'dogs, with the Colts once again spotting greater than a touchdown. But for the second meeting in the Midway, the Monsters moved from 3-point 'dogs to 3-point favorites before settling in today at -2 ½ for the second meeting. And like the Colts, the Seahawks are spotting a big number to the Bucs, this time in Seattle.

Before tackling the minefield that's out there, allow me to say that you can't handicap injuries and add that "Jon Kitna, you're no Carson Palmer." That said, last week, we won $400 when the Pats-Jags stayed under 37 ½ and lost $550 when the underdog Bengals lost Palmer and the game to Pittsburgh. With the faintest hopes of spiny lobster Creole and Corton-Charlemagne at some toney boite on St. Bart's, let's look to cut down our $1,970 deficit and better the 12-18-1 mark by the numbers.

Because the games of January are so concentrated, everybody sees everything. Translated we all saw Washington win with less than 120-yards of offense; the Sons of Krafty Bob annihilate the Jaguars, something the Panthers did to the Giants in Jersey while the Steelers dominated the second half and cruised in Cincinnati.

On the flip side, four sleeping giants stayed home, earning the right to play at home as well as being favored for the second round of playoff games- and don't estimate what a week off in January can do. As for me, I see history four-peating itself.

Just because the Panthers pounded the Giants, they've all-of-a-sudden become dog du jour- well almost, but more on that in a few lines. I respect the linesmaker and admire him for dangling a number that made a huge swing from the first meeting. Gamblers who'd rather have their eyes poked with a sharp stick than play an underdog are in love with the Panthers thanks to last Sunday's Infomercial in Jersey. If the Bears score 17, they cover; heck, they may need only 10 points to cover here. Chicago -2 ½ will be a $550 play.

No team in the playoffs has flown under the radar more than the Broncos. Unloved and forgotten, they catch a scary bunch from these parts. But they're home, had a week off and won the first game, albeit against a lesser bunch. Denver's a tough play to play, Champ Bailey is back for round two, and I hearken back to the underdog thing. Rested favorites fare very well in Round Two and I say, let's send in $550 on the rested Broncos laying 3-points.

Even with Jon Kitna at the helm, the Steelers had a rough time at Cincinnati. The Colts handled them with ease when they last met, and with a week off, I see Pittsburgh, a truly phony team, giving up yards in bunches to a well-rested Colts squad. While laying greater than a touchdown is not my style, in January, the rules change. The Colts spotting 9 will be a $550 risk.

Even if the Redskins can't move the ball, they can play defense. In their Week Five meeting, they pretty much dominated Seattle only to hold on when a Josh Brown field goal hit the upright at game's end. If I feel the Panthers and Steelers threw up smokescreens with victories, I think the 'Skins ragged effort was a smokescreen in reverse. I see them bouncing back off a putrid win and like them taking 9-points for a $440 play.

Listen to I.M. Bettor every Sunday morning from 9-10 a.m. on AM-890 ESPNBoston Radio.

Contact I.M. Bettor at IM@LasVegasSportsLine.com and get a free play by calling 617-520-8065.


 

 

 
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