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BY THE NUMBERS - by I.M. Bettor
Wild Card Weekend, Friday, January 6, 2006
I.M. Bettor
I.M. Bettor

A quick glance at the numbers in Round One of the National Football Lottery a.k.a. "Wild Card Weekend"- a catchphrase I found odd considering that two of the combatants don't fit the moniker- shows that the power of home cooking takes a backseat to the reality of having been there.

And by "there" I mean the big stage, you know the playoffs, you know what every coach will tell you, "This I what we play for." Maybe that's why Local 22 opened at -8 (it's now 7 ½) over the Jags and the Steelers came out at -3 for yet another visit to Cincinnati. In the other pairings, the Giants began as 3-point favorites but early Panthers' money dropped the G-Men to 2 ½, the same number that the Bucs are spotting the visiting Redskins. So what we have are three games with numbers set at a field goal or less; three home favorites and one team, the mighty World Champs, spotting its opponent greater than a touchdown.

Before I get to the big stage, on last week's lesser stage, the by now tepid troops got a much needed win with the underdog Browns. Correctly sensing that Kyle Boller didn't have the power to play three consecutive good games and that the Browns would rally over a humiliating home shutout, the team from the western shore of Lake Erie won outright and we all won $500. That welcome vial of plasma reduced the deficit to $1,820 while putting the record at 11-17-1 after playing by the numbers for 17 weeks.

For the record, I see every underdog as a very live puppy in this, Wild Card Weekend. Okay, stop your bleating, I know that the Local Heroes are prohibitive favorites, but in the deepest pockets of your puffy blue jacket or in the starch on Krafty Bob's trademark white collared against a blue background shirt, aren't you a bit squeamish? After all, these Jags, despite North Florida roots, are suited for chillier climes. They play defense anchored by behemoths on the line and Fragile Fred Taylor enters healthy. In short it's a team made for January football. But of course, we all know that the Sons of the aforementioned Krafty Bob understand what it's like to play football a week after the ball drops in Times Square.

Like I said, don't rip that puffy blue jacket into shreds, while I harbor thoughts that the J-Men can win, I'm also fearful that a rather anemic offense such as theirs may not reach 14-points. Now if you're as smart as the man who leads Local 22, you should know where I'm headed- and that is to make play on under 37 points in the Saturday night special. It's going to be colder than a, well you get the picture and both sides can stop the other. If I fear the Jags can't reach 14-points, I can live with the Hometown Heroes putting up 21 or even 24 points. Under 37-points in the Jags-Pats will be a $440 risk.

Early in the season, the Bengals were hot when the Steelers came to the Queen City. On their first two possessions the homes side managed to dent the Steelers 10 yard line each time only to end up with three points whereupon the epitome of unraveling was unveiled. In the return matchup, they walloped the Steelers in Pittsburgh and along the way exorcised some demons.

Of course I know that the Steelers are smoking and that they've "been there," but has anyway told you that "They've been there and generally lose." The line should be pick, plain and simple. This number is telling you that if the game were in Pittsburgh, the Steelers would be 9-point favorites- balderdash and ludicrous come to mind. The Bengals taking 3-points will be a $550 play in Wild Card Weekend

Listen to I.M. Bettor every Sunday morning from 9-10 a.m. on AM-890 ESPNBoston Radio.

Contact I.M. Bettor at IM@LasVegasSportsLine.com and get a free play by calling 617-520-8065.


 

 

 
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